Nine linked Polymarket accounts earned over $2.4 million with an unprecedented 98% win rate by betting on the exact timing of U.S. military operations in Iran.
Key Takeaways:
Nine Polymarket accounts netted over $2.4M with a 98% win rate on U.S. strikes, triggering insider alarms.Over $1B has been bet on military outcomes, bleeding into commodities like an $800M drop in oil futures.While Polymarket defends its AI surveillance, the CFTC under Michael Selig is using AI to fight the leaks.“This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” said Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps’ co‑founder and CEO. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”
“This is a new kind of insider trading,” said Rob Schwartz, a partner at Morgan Lewis and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) official. While Polymarket’s transactions are publicly visible, traders’ identities remain anonymous.
Polymarket said it partners with “world‑class data analytics firms” to conduct real‑time trade surveillance and anomaly detection, and that it refers suspicious activity to law enforcement.
“The indictment of Gannon Ken Van Dyke is a demonstration of our commitment in practice,” the company said. “Polymarket identified the activity, referred it to authorities, and the system worked. Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified.”
Federal prosecutors last month charged Army Master Sgt. Van Dyke with using classified information to place roughly $34,000 in bets on a special operations mission targeting former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors say he earned more than $400,000. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.
Watchdogs Warn of Systemic AbuseBubblemaps’ head of investigations said the number of people with access to sensitive operational details — from planners to intelligence analysts to family members — creates fertile ground for abuse.
Meanwhile, the Anti‑Corruption Data Collective found similar red flags. Its review of long‑shot Polymarket wagers — bets above $2,500 with less than a 35% chance of winning — showed bettors winning more often than expected, suggesting what the group called “systemic insider trading.”
“We’re talking tens of millions, could be $80 million,” said David Kovel, a former commodities trader now representing fraud victims. Federal investigators are probing the trades, though no charges have been filed.
Deebs warned that the implications go beyond financial crime. If analysts can detect irregular trades, he said, foreign adversaries can too — and may adjust their military planning accordingly.
“Just to put it plainly, this could be putting people’s lives at risk,” he said.
