Nuremberg, Germany, May 19th, 2026, Chainwire
New analysis from independent crypto comparison platform Coinbird shows what disciplined monthly Bitcoin buying since 2015 would have actually produced, while also showing where the popular narrative of “just DCA into Bitcoin” oversimplifies the reality.
The findings are based on Coinbird’s Bitcoin DCA Calculator, which uses historical Bitcoin price data from CoinGecko and lets users model recurring investment scenarios going back to 2013.
To run the backtest or explore alternative scenarios, users can visit:
Key findings
An investor who began a $100/month Bitcoin DCA plan in January 2015 would have made 137 monthly purchases through May 2026, investing a total of $13,700. As of May 19, 2026, the resulting portfolio of 8.219 BTC would be worth approximately $632,315, representing a total return of +4,515% on invested capital. The strategy accumulated Bitcoin at an average acquisition cost of roughly $1,667 per BTC, because early purchases acquired significantly more Bitcoin before prices rose. For investors who started later, near the May 2021 market peak before the 2022 crash, a $100/month DCA plan still returned +84.34% in the May 2021–May 2026 scenario — turning $6,100 invested across 61 monthly purchases into approximately $11,244. Over the same period, a lump-sum investment of the full amount made upfront in May 2021 returned approximately +43%. In this specific scenario, DCA outperformed because the strategy automatically accumulated more Bitcoin during the 2022 bear market. Importantly, lump-sum investing beat DCA at the 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-year horizons in Coinbird’s tested scenarios. The five-year DCA advantage emerged only after a full crash-and-recovery cycle. The conclusion that “DCA beats lump-sum” is not universal — it depends heavily on start date and market regime. DCA investors across the full period still experienced a maximum drawdown of -76.72% during the 2022 bear market, underscoring that recurring purchases do not eliminate volatility or the psychological difficulty of holding through severe declines.“The interesting finding is not simply that Bitcoin went up since 2015,” said Philipp, Founder of Coinbird. “The interesting finding is that, in this historical scenario, automatic monthly buying through crashes, all-time highs and regulatory uncertainty still produced extraordinary long-term results. At the same time, the drawdowns show why this strategy is much harder to live through than it looks on a chart in hindsight.”
Coinbird’s Bitcoin DCA Calculator is available free of charge and allows users to test different investment amounts, purchase intervals and start dates going back to 2013.
Methodology
The analysis simulates recurring Bitcoin purchases at the selected monthly interval using historical CoinGecko price data. Lump-sum comparisons assume the full planned contribution amount is invested upfront at the start of the selected period. Calculations exclude taxes and trading fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
About Coinbird
FounderPhilipp DuringerCoinbird GmbH
