Bitcoin’s latest rally has run into a major technical and on-chain resistance zone, with CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno warning that several indicators now point to elevated correction risk after a sharp rebound from April lows.
Why The Bitcoin Correction Risk Is Rising“Bitcoin has reached a major bear market resistance level, the 200-day moving average at $82.4K, following a 37% price rally from the April lows. The parallel with March 2022 is direct: in that cycle, Bitcoin also rallied 43% before hitting the 200-day MA, after which the price resumed its downward trend. The current setup raises the question of whether history repeats,” CryptoQuant wrote in its May 13 report, titled “Wall of Resistance: Bitcoin Tests the 200-Day MA as Profit-Taking and Weak US Demand Cap the Rally.”
The comparison with March 2022 is central to the firm’s caution. In CryptoQuant’s reading, the 200-day moving average is not just a technical line on the chart, but a zone where prior bear-market rallies have failed when supported by weak demand and heavy profit-taking. Bitcoin’s 37% move from April lows has brought the market back to that same kind of inflection point.
A key concern is the rise in unrealized profits among traders. CryptoQuant said traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June 2025. That matters because holders with sizable paper gains often become more willing to sell into strength, especially when a rally approaches a widely watched resistance level.
Realized profit data suggests that some selling has already begun. CryptoQuant said daily realized profits surged to 14.6K BTC on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. According to the report, spikes of that scale during bear-market rallies have historically preceded local tops, as newly profitable short-term holders accelerate selling into price strength.
CryptoQuant argued that sustained positive Coinbase premium has historically been a prerequisite for more durable Bitcoin rallies, and that its absence suggests the current move lacks broad-based US institutional conviction.
If a correction develops, CryptoQuant identified the main on-chain support level near $70,000, represented by the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price. The firm said this level has historically acted as a resistance-turned-support band in bear markets because it reflects the average cost basis of short-term traders.
At press time, BTC traded at $76,961.
