The Miner Position Index remains below historical panic-selling levels, and the Puell Multiple — a gauge of miner revenue relative to long-term averages — is still under one. Analysts described the current miner behavior as a “wait phase,” a pattern that has appeared near cycle bottoms before.
Long-Term Holders Take Over The Supply SideMore than 70% of all circulating Bitcoin is now sitting in the hands of investors who have held for at least a year. That figure crossed back above 15 million BTC for the first time since October 2025, according to data from CryptoQuant.
The weekly Relative Strength Index for Bitcoin retested the 50 level this week, triggering a bullish read from crypto analyst Sykodelic. That retest came 105 days after Bitcoin’s weekly RSI fell into oversold territory — only the fourth time that has happened on record.
The chance of new lows has become extremely slim.
It has now been 105 days since the cycle low, in which the 1W RSI entered oversold…
Only for the 4th time ever.
The only time Bitcoin made new lows after 105 days after the bottom was in the last cycle.
Taken together, analysts say the data points away from a fresh breakdown. The combination of long-term holders accumulating near historical lows, a technical indicator flipping positive for the first time since February, and miner behavior consistent with past bottoms has analysts broadly aligned on one view.
Whether that confidence holds will depend on whether the market can avoid the kind of external shock — like a major exchange failure — that broke the pattern in 2022.
Featured image from Yellow, chart from TradingView
