Over the past week, Bitcoin has traded sideways in the high $70,000 region, unable to reclaim the psychological $82,000 level that has eluded market bulls since mid-May. Notably, the $76,000 price level has now been tested three weeks in a row and held each time, emerging as a real support zone. However, an obscure on-chain metric may be flashing the clearest bottom signal in Bitcoin’s history.
Key Bearish Signal Arises From Investor Cost Basis DataThis is because when the ratio touches 1.0, the green line (long-term holder cost) overtakes the black line (full market cost), meaning even the most conviction-driven holders are underwater. That is the moment when selling pressure is fully exhausted, and market sentiment is in extreme panic. In the 2015 bear market bottom, the ratio took 59 days to climb from 0.936 back to 1.0. In the 2018–2019 bear bottom, the recovery took 66 days. In the November 2022 FTX collapse-driven bottom, the journey took 50 days. The ratio is presently at 0.936 again. If the current reading holds and historical data repeats itself, Bitcoin’s definitive bottom window may open sometime around mid-to-late July 2026.
Bitcoin Price OverviewAt the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $75,269, following a 2.84% loss in the last week. In tandem, the asset’s performance on larger timeframes is also negative, with declines of 4.65% and 3.55% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively.
