As shown in the green band at the bottom of the chart below, which is labeled as the low transaction volume area, prior crosses into this region were followed closely by important bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
That is why the current decline in transaction volume cannot be read only as a negative signal. Heavy transaction activity often appears closer to cycle tops, when the market is crowded. Examples of these are shown in the chart below in 2017, 2021, and 2025. Low transaction volume, on the other hand, tends to appear when interest has faded, which is a good sign.
What This Could Do To The Bitcoin Price First, the Bitcoin price may continue to lower or remain under pressure. Then, once transaction volume reaches the deeper low-volume band and stays there long enough to confirm exhaustion, the setup could begin to look more like a cycle bottom within one month.
