Key Takeaways:
Brent crude fell below $99 on May 24 as Trump declared a U.S.-Iran deal “largely negotiated,” targeting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.JPMorgan forecasts Brent averaging $60 long-term if tensions ease, with WTI potentially sliding into the $80s on confirmed supply restoration. Bitcoin held near $77,000 through the Memorial Day weekend as crypto markets stayed open while NYSE, CME, and bond markets will be closed on May 25.Traders expect a confirmed deal to push WTI toward the $80s. Infrastructure repairs and shipping logistics could delay full supply normalization by weeks or months, but the market is already pricing in restored flow. If talks collapse, the risk premium returns fast.
Pakistan-mediated ceasefire rounds earlier this spring triggered some of the steepest single-day price drops of the year. The same pattern is repeating. Deal optimism compresses the risk premium; any breakdown restores it. Traders heading into Tuesday’s session are watching for formal confirmation.
U.S. stock markets, bond markets, and CME energy futures operate under holiday restrictions tomorrow, May 25. Normal trading resumes Tuesday, May 26. That session will absorb any deal developments that emerge over the long weekend. Anything could happen in between that time.
Oil’s near-term direction stays event-driven. A confirmed Hormuz reopening flips the supply picture fast. Traders who rode prices above $110 in early May have already seen what deal optimism does on the way down.
