Bitcoin’s demand backdrop has weakened sharply, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who said an on-chain gauge of apparent demand has fallen to its most bearish reading of the year.
“Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand has just reached its most negative level since the beginning of the year,” Darkfost wrote. “With an estimate now approaching -147,000 BTC, we have to go back to December 2025 to find market sentiment this bearish.”
Apparent Demand Turns Deeply Negative “In other words, this metric helps estimate whether structural accumulation is strong enough to absorb the new supply created by the network,” the analyst wrote.
That interpretation frames the current reading as more than a short-term sentiment gauge. If apparent demand is deeply negative, it suggests that the market is not showing enough underlying absorption to offset issuance and support a more stable bullish phase.
Futures Momentum Faces A Spot Demand ProblemDarkfost’s core argument is that Bitcoin’s rally structure may be vulnerable if derivatives activity is doing too much of the work. Futures markets can push price higher, accelerate liquidations and amplify directional moves, but they do not necessarily represent durable accumulation.
“This development suggests that demand continues to gradually contract,” Darkfost said. “Without a meaningful recovery in spot demand, it becomes difficult to imagine Bitcoin sustaining a durable rally purely through the momentum driven by futures markets.”
“Futures can support short term momentum and amplify price movements,” the analyst wrote, “but sustainable bullish phases generally require genuine spot demand, as derivatives alone do not allow the market to build a stable and solid foundation.”
Bearish Signal, Long-Term Setup?“That said, even if this situation appears relatively bearish in the short term, these types of environments have historically also created interesting opportunities for long term investors capable of remaining patient,” the analyst wrote.
At press time, BTC traded at $77,300.
