Looking at the 2022 example, Bitcoin pushed into the 200-day moving average around $48,000 in early April, failed to hold that level, and then continued lower until the price fell to as low as $28,000 in May. That move turned out to be a decline of about 40% from the rejection area.
If $76,000 breaks, Merlijn has a clear first downside target: the $67,000 CME gap. CME gaps form because Bitcoin is always trading continuously on crypto exchanges even on weekends, but CME futures pause during weekends and market closures. A gap can appear on the chart when futures reopen at a different price from where they closed, and most of the time, this gap always acts as a price magnet.
