Hyperliquid’s new HIP-4 update—unveiled Monday—marks a major shift in how crypto prediction markets could operate, and it arrives as the platform looks to intensify competition in a fast-growing sector where Polymarket and Kalshi currently lead.
Prediction Markets Get A New PlaybookRather than relying on a separate external oracle system to determine results, the validator set becomes responsible for deployment and settlement of these markets through on-chain governance.
According to the explanation shared, validators cast votes on whether canonical markets should be deployed and how they should be settled. Those votes consider multiple factors, including whether the market rules are unambiguous, and—importantly—how the market itself scores on subjective quality.
Yaigourth also contrasted HIP-4’s approach with how some other market platforms handle real-world event resolution. He pointed out that Polymarket uses its decentralized “optimistic oracle” Universal Market Access (UMA), while Kalshi is centralized.
Hyperliquid HIP-4 OutlookThe HIP-4 changes build on earlier announcements from Hyperliquid about upcoming market functionality. Earlier this year, the platform said it planned to launch HIP-4 markets that introduce prediction-market-like outcome trading.
Hyperliquid also noted that fully permissionless HIP-4 market deployments are not yet live. Once that capability is enabled, the platform expects a period of rapid experimentation and new market launches from developers such as Outcome and Trade[XYZ].
FalconX also suggested this setup could make cross-margining possible, which would improve capital efficiency by letting traders allocate the same capital across different position types rather than keeping liquidity isolated.
Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com
