Ran Neuner says Bitcoin’s chart structure is starting to resemble the breakdown pattern that preceded the 2022 capitulation, with one key difference: this time, he argues, Michael Saylor’s Strategy may be the market’s most important marginal buyer.
“If history repeats, right, then we should break down or could break down below this,” Neuner said, referring to Bitcoin’s current chart pattern. “I hate saying it because look, I don’t even want to admit it to myself, but I mean definitely it’s going down to the $40ks or $50ks if it happens.”
“Last month in May, it only pegged at 100 on the 11th of May when the XD date was the 15th of May,” Neuner said. “Whereas in the previous months, it pegged on the 25th of the previous month. So it should have pegged, if it was going to keep the trend, on the 25th of April. It only pegged on the 11th of May, right? Which meant that he only had four days to raise money.”
Neuner said that matters because Bitcoin’s recent rallies appeared to line up with periods when Strategy had more time to raise capital and buy. If STRC spends fewer days near $100, he argued, the market may begin to discount the absence of its largest recurring buyer.
“If we carry on like last month and we have another month where he can’t raise money, eventually the market’s going to start discounting the fact that Saylor is not in the market anymore on STRC,” Neuner said. “Your biggest buyer at the moment is not in the market anymore.”
The discussion also widened into macro risks. Neuner cited rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation, oil prices, and the possibility that large SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs could drain liquidity from risk assets. He said Treasury yields and equities cannot both keep rising indefinitely, arguing that “one of them has to give.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $77,033.
