The activity, coupled with decelerating accumulation by “dolphins,” or those with between 100-1,000 BTC, matches the pattern of the last major crypto bear market in 2022.
“The 1-year change in whale balances remains in negative territory, a distribution pattern directly mirroring the 2022 bear market, when year-over-year whale growth first stalled then turned negative,” the report says.
During that period, Bitcoin was priced as high as $47,450 in March to as low as $15,742 in November—a decline of nearly 67%.
As it stands now, the top crypto asset has only fallen 42% from its October all-time high of $126,080.
“On a monthly basis, both the dolphin and whale cohorts have effectively stalled,” wrote CryptoQuant.
The firm added that when these groups of holders simultaneously fail to add Bitcoin, it typically precedes “ sustained price weakness, as they “represent the primary source of structural demand support in Bitcoin markets.”
As dolphins and whales stagnate, the balance of BTC held by long-term holders has actually grown to 15.8 million BTC, a new all-time high according to the firm’s data. Yet, that data point is a counterintuitive signal, analysts said, labeling it “a bearish configuration signaling the absence of new market entrants.”
“Long-term holder supply increases when Bitcoin does not change hands at scale,” CryptoQuant wrote, calling the short-term demand “insufficient” to deal with the selling from long-term holders.
Bitcoin was recently changing hands around $73,536 on Thursday, down 1.7% in the last 24 hours and now nearly 5% on the week.
