On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is around $78,000, while the True Market Mean is sitting close to $78,300. These two levels have now converged, creating a heavy ceiling just above Bitcoin’s current price.
Bitcoin Is Stalling Below The Level Recent Buyers Need Most
There’s also Bitcoin’s true market mean, which makes the $78,000 price level even more important. The true market mean tracks the cost basis of actively transacted supply, and according to Glassnode, it has always acted as a dividing line between bear-market and bull-market regimes. It is currently near $78,300, almost exactly where the short-term holder’s cost basis is sitting.
Bitcoin Needs To Hold Above This LevelMany recent buyers accumulated between $75,000 and $78,000, pushing their cost basis close to the true market mean. That can support a recovery if demand is strong, but it can also create fast downside pressure if demand is low.
