Bitcoin’s composite trend signal has shifted back into a “high bear” zone, according to researcher Axel Adler Jr., following a sharp three-week reversal from May highs around $82,500.
A Pattern Taking ShapeRepeated failures to break past the $80,000 to $81,000 range have left a head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the daily chart.
The most recent lower high, set near $78,000, now sits as the right shoulder of that setup. A daily RSI reading below 50 adds to the bearish lean, reflecting limited strength during recent price recoveries.
On May 18, miners moved roughly 21,000 BTC to Binance — the second-largest such transfer this year, trailing only the 23,150 BTC sent on February 5.
Demand Failing To Keep PaceDespite the surge in supply hitting the exchange, the price reaction stayed relatively calm. Binance’s total BTC reserves climbed from about 618,600 on May 6 to nearly 634,000 by May 26, yet no aggressive sell-off followed.
Without a return of spot buying, the market risks slipping back into the choppy, seller-dominated conditions that capped prices earlier in the year.
The realized profit/loss ratio currently stands at 1.56 — well below the two to five range associated with stronger bull market conditions. That reading points to moderate buying conviction at best during the recent price bounce.
$75,000 Becomes The LineThe $74,500 to $75,000 zone is now being watched closely across multiple analytical frameworks. Adler identifies $74,500 as critical support, while technical analysis places the same area at the neckline of the broader chart pattern.
A confirmed break below that level would expose the next major support near $70,400. For now, the market is holding — but the balance of supply, weak demand, and a deteriorating momentum picture has put that hold under serious strain.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from TradingView
