His reasoning hinges on the direction of realized profits. Put simply, holders are still sitting on paper gains they are steadily cashing in, a dynamic that historically keeps pressure on price until that selling burns itself out. The PnL index he relies on blends several onchain valuation gauges (including the market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio and net unrealized profit and loss) into a single trend line that peaked around mid-2025 and has been sliding since.
The split reveals a murky mid-cycle picture, because if Ju is right, traders face another grinding stretch before realized profits reset, and the next leg higher can begin. If the greening cycle indicator and steady ETF inflows win out, the bottom may already be in.
Either way, Ju has handed the market a clear tripwire to watch wherein the moment unrealized profits start climbing while realized profits fade, the 18-month clock he describes would finally be ready to flip.
