“The evidence is most consistent with a large directional holder exiting a concentrated position rather than a contemporaneous basis-trade unwind,” NYDIG wrote. “The transaction exceeded the reported position of every disclosed March 31, 2026, 13F holder, required an unusually large price concession, and was not accompanied by the CME futures activity that would be expected if a basis position were being unwound.”
The trade occurred against a weaker market backdrop for US spot Bitcoin ETFs. NYDIG noted that the category had entered May 26 after six straight sessions of net outflows beginning May 15. Over that stretch, spot Bitcoin ETFs lost approximately $1.55 billion, with IBIT accounting for about $1.1 billion of the total.
Bitcoin’s technical setup had also deteriorated. According to NYDIG, BTC had rallied into its descending 200-day moving average near $82,000 to $82,500 in early May but failed to break through. By mid-May, price had fallen back below the trendline, while the 14-day RSI slid from around 70 to the mid-30s. That failed breakout likely contributed to the ETF outflows that preceded the block sale.
The minutes before the trade showed a burst of activity. IBIT opened May 26 at $43.44 and traded normally during the first hour, before volume accelerated between 10:16 and 10:28 as the ETF moved from $43.81 to an intraday high of $44.24. The 10:26–10:27 and 10:27–10:28 intervals recorded 822,000 and 702,000 shares, respectively, about three to four times normal activity.
NYDIG said the trade condition codes also mattered. The transaction was marked as an off-exchange TRF trade, carried a Rule 611 trade-through exemption, and was designated as an Intermarket Sweep Order. In practice, those conditions point to a privately negotiated block designed to prioritize execution certainty over price improvement.
“Taken together, the designations indicate a negotiated off-exchange block transaction executed under trade-through exemptions and sweep procedures that allowed the seller to prioritize certainty of execution over price improvement,” NYDIG wrote.
That urgency is central to NYDIG’s conclusion. A 20,000-share trade printed seconds earlier at $44.17, confirming that the $43.16 price was specific to the block rather than a broader market move. IBIT then rebounded to roughly $44.06 within the next minute before sliding later in the session and closing at $42.99.
NYDIG also pushed back on the idea that the trade was a delta-neutral basis unwind. A 29.21 million-share IBIT position represented approximately 18,500 BTC of exposure, equivalent to around 3,700 CME Bitcoin futures contracts. Total CME Bitcoin futures volume that day was about 8,630 contracts, but the 10:30–10:31 interval saw only 91 contracts, and the adjacent minute saw 93. Even the full 10:30–11:00 window accounted for only about 1,070 contracts.
“A simultaneous basis unwind of this size would have represented approximately 43% of total daily CME volume and likely produced a visible spike in futures activity,” NYDIG wrote. “No such activity occurred.”
The firm also cautioned against reading IBIT’s reported $720 million of net redemptions across May 26 and May 27 as a direct measure of the block trade. ETF creations and redemptions can obscure simultaneous gross activity, and IBIT’s reported NAVs of $42.955 and $42.431 on those dates were both below the $43.16 block price.
The seller remains unidentified. NYDIG said public data cannot conclusively determine whether the exit reflected forced constraints, such as investor redemptions or risk limits, or a discretionary investment call. What the trade does show, however, is that one sophisticated holder was willing to pay nearly $30 million for speed.
At press time, BTC traded at $72,891.
