Back in January 2015, Bitcoin’s RSI fell to about 28 when the price fell to $200. A similar pattern played out in December 2018, when RSI dipped below 30 around $3,500, followed by about three months of sideways accumulation before Bitcoin broke higher. The third instance was June 2022, in the depths of the bear market that followed the Luna collapse.
However, looking at November 2022, Bitcoin broke below the prior cycle’s $19,900 peak and collapsed to $15,500, spending a brief period under $16,000. That breakdown was forced by the FTX implosion, a black swan event that liquidated billions in assets and obliterated confidence simultaneously. Without a comparable catalytic shock, current crypto market dynamics lack the mechanism to sustain prices below $60,000 within the remaining 128-day window for a bottom.
On the other hand, a reclaim and monthly close above the weekly EMA and $80,000 in June 2026 would change the conversation from “Is $60,000 the bottom?” to “How fast can Bitcoin rebuild toward $100,000?” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $72,860, down by 1.2% in the past 24 hours.
