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Bitwise Model Shows Bitcoin Is Deeply Underpriced at $224K Fair Value Amid Debt Crisis

By bitcoin.com
Jun 4, 2026
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Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin retraced to $72K in May after Bitcoin ETP outflows reached $1.031 billion in the second half of the month.Bitwise Europe data shows long-term holders reached an all-time high of 14.85M BTC, equal to 74.3% of supply.The $78K–$85K zone remains the key level to watch, with Polymarket odds for CLARITY Act passage in 2026 at 75%.
Bitcoin Hit $83K Then Crashed to $72K — Here Is What Flipped
“Based on this model, bitcoin’s ‘fair value’ as a sovereign default hedge is dependent on the weighted default probability and the market cap of the ‘insured’ sovereign bonds,” Bitwise said in its report. Image source: Bitwise. A $29 Trillion Debt Wall and a New Fed Chair: What It Means for Bitcoin

Bitwise Europe’s report identifies a divided macro environment. On one side, global equities continued making new all-time highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and positive growth revisions. On the other hand, sovereign bond markets are under rising stress.

Governments and companies are set to borrow $29 trillion from bond markets in 2026, 17% more than in 2024 and double the amount from a decade ago, per the report. The IMF has warned that markets are becoming less forgiving of sovereign borrowing assumptions. Japanese 10-year bond yields reached multi-decade highs during the month, a development Bitwise Europe flags as particularly significant given Japan’s roughly $7.5 trillion sovereign bond market and its status as the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries.

14.9 Million Bitcoin Locked Away While Traders Step Back
Bitcoin at a Historic Discount While Nasdaq Trades Near All-Time Highs
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of BitKan. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. BitKan shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information. Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. Products mentioned in this article may not be available in your region.

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