Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, sitting at around $61,700, is the line the market is watching most closely right now.
That level has marked the bottom of every major Bitcoin bear cycle going back to 2015, and it held again this week — at least for now.
A Classic Bottom Signal — Or Just A Pause?The selloff dragged Bitcoin down to around $61,300 before buyers pushed the price back up past $64,750, a recovery of more than 5%.
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a bear flag breakdown still in progress. The pattern points to a potential drop into the $50,000–$52,000 range, and the setup has gained weight from rising trading volumes on the downside move.
BTC has so far failed to reclaim the upper trend line of the flag. That failure keeps the bearish scenario technically intact, even after Thursday’s bounce.
Just like that, BTC dumped to the 61k level, which is most likely the local bottom for now.
Not all market watchers are buying the optimism. Trader Hitman42.eth warned that bulls may be walking into a trap, suggesting the bounce could lure in new long positions before another leg down.
everyone cheering this $3k bitcoin:native bounce is completely ignoring the graveyard they just walked over.
$600m in longs just got vaporized in 60 minutes flat. we tapped $61k right above the february lows and bounced.
The 200-week moving average remains the key dividing line. As long as BTC holds above $61,700, the bear flag breakdown is not confirmed. A convincing recovery from that level would put $70,000 back in play as the next meaningful price target.
Bitcoin has tested the 200-week average at major lows before — in 2018 and again during the March 2020 crash — and bounced sharply each time.
Whether this week’s touch of that level marks a similar turning point, or just a brief pause before a deeper drop, remains an open question.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
