On a brighter note, spot orderbook depth at 5% and 10% shows investors have continued to buy dips despite the selloff.
How low can Bitcoin go?The primary driver of the selloff remains geopolitical risk, Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, told Decrypt. “Renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran increased risk aversion across markets and even put a chance for potential rate hikes on the table,” he said. “U.S. equities continue to push to new all-time highs, attracting speculative capital toward AI stocks and away from crypto.”
Otychenko noted that shortly before the decline accelerated, Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis fell below the true mean price—a crossover that historically occurred during the middle stages of previous bear markets. “The average recent buyer is now underwater relative to a long-term valuation benchmark,” he explained. “Historically, this creates a self-reinforcing cycle where losses trigger additional selling pressure.”
Several on-chain models suggest Bitcoin could still move below $60,000, according to Otychenko. He also noted that the long-term holder supply reached a new all-time high this week—a trend that often occurs during bear markets. “If historical patterns hold, a bottom could emerge within the next three to six months.”
Should Bitcoin lose $60,000, Otychenko identified the realized price near $54,000 as the next major reference point. “Given the lower volatility in this cycle, the eventual bottom could form much closer to that level than in previous cycles.”
Bitcoin is going through a natural “tired phase” of the cycle, Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, told Decrypt. With Bitcoin hovering around its yearly lows just above $60,000, Singh said he wouldn’t be surprised to see another leg lower into the $50,000s. “That could be where the market finds a ‘true bottom,’ shakes out weak hands, and begins building a foundation for a stronger move higher later in the year.”
Standard Chartered’s contrarian view“I suspect the buying following the selling will be more aggressive – I think either 10x (+ 320 BTC) or 100x (+3200 BTC),” he said. “ If I am right … I would see it as a tentative sign the low has been printed.”
Kendrick also noted that the ETF holdings have remained “structurally strong,” falling only from 682K BTC to 674K BTC since February—far less than he had feared. “When we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k, we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted.”
