CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s current distribution phase may be less a sign of structural weakness than a major transfer of supply from old market participants to US financial institutions, ETFs and new long-term holders.
Bitcoin’s Ownership Base Is ChangingKi’s thesis centers on the composition of Bitcoin holders. He said that, for any asset, the long-term market setup depends heavily on the capital base behind it. If the new owners are institutions capable of attracting larger pools of liquidity over time, he argued, the transition could ultimately support another upward cycle.
The scale of absorption is central to his concern. Since January 2023, Strategy has bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, removing a net 711,174 BTC from circulation, according to Ki. Since March 2024, when Bitcoin was also around $63,000, ETFs have absorbed 509,102 BTC while Strategy bought another 650,706 BTC. Together, that amounts to 1,240,808 BTC absorbed, yet price has returned to the same level.
Short-Term Buyers Are Maturing Ki also pointed to a major shift inside the realized-cap structure. Bitcoin is at roughly the same price as two years ago, he said, but the holder base looks materially different. The 6-month-to-2-year cohort, representing investors who entered during this cycle, now accounts for 53% of realized cap, up from 15% two years ago.
The setup is not without risk. Ki reposted a separate observation from Julio Moreno stating that overall Bitcoin demand, including speculative and spot demand, is contracting at a monthly pace of 232,000 BTC. Moreno argued that the current correction is tied directly to Bitcoin demand conditions, not to equities, oil or macro indicators, noting that stocks are at all-time highs while manufacturing activity is improving.
Ki’s posts therefore present a split picture. On one side, current demand is contracting and sell pressure remains heavy despite historic institutional absorption. On the other, Bitcoin’s ownership base is migrating toward institutions and maturing newer cohorts that may provide a deeper demand base in the future.
Ki acknowledged that this transition comes with a cultural cost. “Honestly, in terms of rising asset value, I think traditional financial institution investors might provide an even stronger demand base than Bitcoin OGs,” he wrote. “Of course, in that process, some of the cypherpunk values may get diluted. I really regret that part too.”
For markets, the debate now turns on whether Wall Street’s growing share of Bitcoin ownership can offset the supply leaving older holders and miners. Ki’s conclusion remains constructive, but conditional on that transfer becoming a source of future liquidity rather than a ceiling on upside.
“Still, I believe there will definitely be another upward cycle for Bitcoin,” he wrote. “As an investor, I still believe in Bitcoin and think it’s worth waiting a bit longer.”
At press time, BTC traded at $62,696.
