Bitcoin price performance in June has gotten off to a rocky start, with prices now down 50% from the market’s all-time high. In the last week alone, the premier cryptocurrency has declined by 16%, forcing the price to around $60,000 for the first time since February.
Notably, the heavy market loss has coincided with the dominant Bitcoin treasury Strategy offloading $2.5 million in BTC to manage its balance sheet, despite initial chants of “never sell”. Moreover, the upcoming IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX is garnering much momentum as a favorable investment at the moment. Using relevant on-chain data, market analyst Rafael, with the X username n3ocortex, has highlighted a market bottom range amid the current persistent downtrend.
Historical Data Supports Potential Dip To $35,000 Before RecoveryPrice has now worked through the upper rungs of our pricing framework, moving into the cluster of valuation levels where past cycles have found their floor.
According to Rafael, previous market bottoms have usually occurred between the 1.05x-1.18x range of the CVDD. Based on this historical standard, the likely higher market bottom zone for Bitcoin lies between $46,000 and $54,000. On the other hand, a worst-case scenario points to a bottom between $35,000 – $40,000. For context, Bitcoin has only entered this deeper market zone on less than 3% of trading days in this market cycle.
Notably, Rafael also points out that Bitcoin’s cycle drawdowns have become progressively shallower, declining from 85% in the first cycle to 77% in the previous cycle and roughly 50% in the current cycle. While this trend of market maturation does not eliminate the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting a capitulation scenario, the weight of the evidence currently supports the higher bottom range zone.
Bitcoin Market OverviewAt press time, Bitcoin trades at $60,537, reflecting a 4.7% decline in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down 4.69% to $1.21 trillion.
Alongside the CVDD, other important on-chain metrics revealed by Rafael include the Realized price ($54,000), Balanced price ($40,000), and the Delta price ($35,000). To re-establish bullish intent for a recovery, the seasoned analyst explains that Bitcoin must reclaim the price zone between $75,000 and $78,000, where the STH cost basis, True Market Mean, and the 200DMA converge.
