Key Takeaways:
CME’s Fedwatch tool shows a 98.2% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, 2026.Kevin Warsh, confirmed 54-45 and sworn in May 22, leads his first FOMC meeting this month.Goldman Sachs has pushed expected rate cuts to 2027, signaling a prolonged hold period ahead.The June 17 meeting is particularly high-stakes because it includes the Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the dot plot, along with a press conference with Warsh’s roadmap. Markets are watching closely to see how Warsh frames the path for rates through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
Markets Are Locked InSeveral data points explain the consensus:
The May jobs report showed 172,000 payrolls added, stronger than expected. Core PCE inflation remains sticky, with some forecasts still above 3%. Tariff uncertainty, energy prices, and geopolitical factors continue to cloud the outlook. Goldman Sachs has pushed its expected rate cut timeline to 2027, Bloomberg reported this week.The Fed has held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% through the first half of 2026, including the April 28–29 meeting.
The Trump Pressure Campaign The Dot Plot Is the Real Event
