Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced back on Monday in a modest relief rally, climbing to about $0.086 after sliding to a multi-year low of $0.077 over the weekend.
But when looking for clues on where the memecoin might go next, market analyst Ali Martinez released a technical update arguing that DOGE is sitting at a “critical structural inflection point.” In his view, the next phase could follow one of two clear paths, shaped by both higher-timeframe chart patterns and on-chain activity.
Is A Macro Expansion Cycle Next?According to his analysis, since DOGE’s early days, the asset has tended to move through extended, multi-year consolidation channels—periods that compress volatility and effectively “transfer” supply over time. Those phases, he argues, typically come before larger structural bull markets.
The analyst emphasized that this key chart level has support behind the scenes on-chain. He referenced the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which tracks the exact price levels where the tokens in circulation last moved.
The result, he says, is a large concentration of historical exposure that often becomes a psychological and financial “wall of defense,” making the area difficult for sellers to push through.
Two Scenarios For DogecoinWhen identifying the key levels to watch next, Martinez highlighted the $0.081 level, an active area where the URPD volume cluster overlaps with the channel mid-range. The second level is $0.058, which he calls the multi-year absolute channel floor.
Scenario B is more cautious. Martinez said that if macroeconomic headwinds intensify and Dogecoin closes weekly below $0.081, the chart structure would shift into what he called an extended valuation reset.
Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com
