Today, we announced that Kalshi will now require employment information in order to trade in certain markets.
Market integrity is a more than just a lofty goal for us. It’s the reason we collect identification info from every trader, why we surveil our markets 24/7, and why we…
The disclosure rule kicks in only for markets the exchange flags as carrying an elevated risk of insider trading or manipulation, such as contracts pegged to corporate performance, national security, and major geopolitical flashpoints such as the Iran war.
Traders who hit that threshold should fill out an online form with their employment details. Kalshi said it won't check the information unless an investigation is already underway, though it may bar some users from individual contracts depending on where they work.
Risk scoringAlongside the disclosure requirement, Kalshi announced a "risk scoring framework" designed to identify markets with elevated insider trading risk.
When a market is proposed for listing, it runs through a system weighing six factors, including corporate KPI or events risk, outcome concentration risk, market importance, regulatory risk, non-traditional insider risk, and national security risk.
Less important markets carrying high insider or manipulation risk may be rejected from listing entirely.
The framework also assesses whether markets pose potential national security concerns.
"By running an assessment on the national security risk a market might present before we list it, we can better prevent dangerous events from having a negative effect on our markets—or vice versa," Robert DeNault, head of enforcement at Kalshi, wrote in the statement.
Other measures include expanded whistleblower tools that let users report suspicious activity directly to the company's surveillance team, which monitors public order books 24/7.
The independent Surveillance Audit Committee, appointed to oversee the integrity and enforcement program, will continue delivering quarterly reports.
Kalshi confirmed Tuesday that it has opened more than 150 investigations this year, blocked more than 100 potential insider trades using new screening tools, referred more than 20 cases to law enforcement, and taken five disciplinary actions.
The employer disclosure metric is "a useful filter, not a solution," Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and COO of modular oracle Redstone, told Decrypt.
The approach will catch obvious cases, like an employee trading their own company's earnings contract, but it carries structural limits, Kazmierczak said, noting it is self-reported and that Kalshi only verifies once an investigation is triggered, giving "the honest disclose and the bad actors an incentive not to."
Material non-public information "rarely travels through a clean employment line," Kazmierczak said, adding that it moves through contractors, suppliers, advisors, friends, and family, "none of whom show up on an employer field."
Disclosure works best "as an input into the risk-scoring and surveillance layer," he said, rather than "as a gate on its own."
The bigger risk is overreach, Kazmierczak said, noting prediction markets are only accurate because informed participants trade on what they know.
Kazmierczak said there is a "meaningful difference between someone trading on legitimate expertise and domain knowledge and someone trading on material non-public information," warning that overly broad employer checks could end up restricting legitimate participants alongside true insiders.
He noted how users should have clear answers on how employment data is stored, accessed, and shared with regulators.
"None of this is unusual," Kazmierczak said, noting that regulated brokerages face similar obligations. But he said it is "new territory for a prediction market" and that users should expect the same standards applied to financial venues handling identity and conflict data.
