Martinez’s case rests on a convergence of on-chain metrics that have historically accompanied market bottoms rather than preceded further selling. Bitcoin’s decline to $59,000 — its lowest level since 2024 — flushed out what he describes as “overleveraged premiums” across the board, per his X post. That kind of forced deleveraging, he argues, is typically what creates the conditions for a genuine bottom rather than a temporary bounce.
Two data points sit at the center of Martinez’s analysis. The first is long-term holder behavior. During the recent downswing, long-term investors distributed more than $3.25 billion in spot Bitcoin, temporarily pushing exchange reserves higher and increasing potential short-term selling pressure. That distribution, Martinez notes, is consistent with what has historically marked the final phase of supply absorption before accumulation begins.
The second is supply held at a loss. Bitcoin’s drop to $59,000 pushed more than 10.46 million BTC into an underwater position. According to Martinez’s post, every previous instance where the supply-in-loss metric crossed the 10 million threshold has accurately timed macro bottoms in prior cycles — a signal he considers one of the most reliable indicators available.
Where The Bottom Could LandRather than calling a specific price floor, Martinez identified two accumulation zones based on MVRV band analysis — the ratio of Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. The most reliable accumulation windows historically appear when MVRV settles between the 1.0 and 0.8 bands, which currently correspond to approximately $53,900 and $43,150, per his analysis. He is also tracking three key moving averages as structural reference points: the 200-week simple moving average at $62,800, the 300-week at $55,000, and the 400-week at $42,500.
Fellow analyst Benjamin Cowen separately echoed the assessment, telling his audience that investor psychology is approaching the territory historically associated with major cycle bottoms — a phase he estimates could extend through Q3 and potentially into October.
As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at around $63,000, recovering from the $59,000 lows as the market processes whether the worst week since FTX marked a capitulation bottom or simply the latest step in a longer correction.
Cover image from Grok, BTCUD chart from Tradingview
