Key Takeaways:
Gold dropped $138.60 to $4,120 on June 10 as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed May CPI rose 4.2% year over year.CME FedWatch showed a 72% December rate-hike probability after the 172,000 May jobs report.Silver fell to $64.79, extending a 3-day loss from $67-plus as Iran escalation failed to lift metals.Markets had already repriced Fed expectations following the May nonfarm payrolls report, which came in at 172,000, roughly double the 85,000 consensus estimate. CME FedWatch data showed December rate-hike odds at approximately 68–72% by June 10, up sharply from prior weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to the 4.53–4.56% range. The U.S. Dollar Index firmed near 99.9.
The Geopolitical ParadoxThe metal had seen significant inflows during its run to an all-time high near $121 in early 2026. Profit-taking accelerated as macro conditions shifted.
Structural Backdrop What Traders Are Watching NextThe BLS releases the May PPI on June 11. Any further geopolitical developments in the Iran-Israel conflict, Fed speakers, and physical demand data at current price levels will shape whether the $4,000 psychological level holds. A ceasefire or softer PPI print could support a relief rally. Persistent hot data or re-escalation risks further tests of support.
