He noted the relief rally in Bitcoin “has already partially arrived,” with the move from the low $60,000s to around $65,800 recovering most of the geopolitical risk premium built up in recent weeks.
Bitcoin’s recent levels looked significantly oversold from a sentiment perspective, Georgii Verbitskii, derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, told Decrypt. His base case is that most negative news is already priced in, given the market has spent months digesting geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s fundamental problemThe U.S.-Iran deal does not fix Bitcoin’s fundamental problem of “genuinely soft institutional demand,” Levin said. “A peace deal alone does not bring that capital back.”
Bitcoin just confirmed its 11th-largest downward difficulty adjustment ever: −10.09% (138.96T to 124.93T) at block 953,568, the 2nd-biggest drop of 2026.
A ~15% June price slide squeezed miner margins. The epoch ran 15.6 days vs the 14-day target as hashrate came offline.
A hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday would likely reload “put demand and cap any rally from the deal news,” Levin said.
“If Friday’s signing goes cleanly and the Fed does not surprise,” he expects a $66,000 to $70,000 target for Bitcoin at the end of the second quarter. For year-end, however, Levin remains bullish, expecting a retest of $100,000 or above as “very much on the table.”
Verbitskii, on the other hand, does not expect a significant decline from current levels without a negative catalyst, adding that the market has become “increasingly desensitized to headlines related to Iran.” Investors view these risks as largely known factors, he said, expecting Bitcoin to “slowly recover toward the $70,000 range over the coming months.”
