Key Takeaways:
Wintermute said bitcoin rose 1.9% as May CPI hit 4.2% and Iran conflict risks eased. Bitcoin ETFs and treasury firms remain weak; AUM fell from $220B to $140B.Wintermute says Fed signals on June 19 could determine if the rebound continues.The second driver was geopolitical. After more than 100 days, the Iran conflict ended, with President Donald Trump authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the naval blockade. A formal signing is set for June 19 in Switzerland.
Oil prices fell sharply as the risk premium unwound. Brent dropped from the high $110s to the low $80s over the past month, including a 6.6% decline this week. The dollar weakened 1%, while the 10-year Treasury yield moved back toward 4.50%.
Crypto Bounce Lacks Fresh CapitalThat rally now looks more like a bear-market fakeout than a new cycle high, according to the firm’s outlook.
That makes it difficult to call a bottom. Long-term buyers may see value in the low $60,000s, and selling pressure has eased. But without sustained inflows, any rally risks becoming another trap.
