Key Takeaways:
Glassnode data shows bitcoin remains below major on-chain recovery benchmarks.Recent market participants continue carrying unrealized losses near 10%.A reclaim of the True Market Mean, a return of recent buyers to profitability, and renewed capital inflows would strengthen the case for a sustained recovery.Glassnode stated:
“Currently at $77.2k, it sits roughly 15% above spot near $65.6k, placing the market firmly in discount territory.”
Recent buyers remain under pressure even after the bounce. Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), a metric that compares the current value of coins held by recent buyers with the price they paid for them, improved from 0.81 to 0.90 but remained below the 1.0 break-even threshold. The cohort’s estimated cost basis was near $72,600, leaving newer holders with unrealized losses of roughly 10%.
Profitability data also remained weak. The 30-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stood at 0.53, showing realized losses continued to outweigh gains.
Conditions for a Stronger Recovery Remain UnmetCapital flows have improved but remain negative. Realized Cap fell 1.45% over 90 days to $1.07 trillion, though the seven-day change improved to negative 0.18%, showing outflows have slowed.
Glassnode detailed:
“The conditions required before a credible transition to a pre-bull phase can be considered are specific and measurable: a reclaim of the True Market Mean near $77.2k, Short-Term Holder MVRV back above 1.0, and Realized Cap turning positive on the 90-day horizon.”
