Key Takeaways:
Rep. Bryan Steil’s bill would bar House members and families from political bets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Violators face a penalty of at least $2,000 or 10% of the trade, plus forfeiture of net profits. Speaker Johnson and Trump back the measure, which echoes a Senate rule passed earlier in 2026.Under the legislation, House members, their spouses and their dependent children would be prohibited from placing such bets. Crucially, the ban is narrow, covering wagers on political and policy events (including anything that came to a lawmaker’s attention through their congressional service) while still permitting bets on unrelated events such as sports.
The concern animating Steil’s bill is straightforward, i.e. members of Congress routinely possess nonpublic information about whether legislation will pass, how agencies will act and when policy will shift. A liquid market that pays out on exactly those outcomes creates an obvious temptation to trade (making it the political-policy equivalent of insider trading in equities, which is already illegal for lawmakers under separate rules).
Looking ahead, the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act faces an arduous journey of going through committee first and then a floor vote, even though the backing of the speaker and the president gives it unusual early momentum.
