Nearly six months later, the firm conceded on Wednesday that that’s not the case—right as Bitcoin breaks below the $60,000 mark for the second time this month.
“Market structure has clearly changed: ETF ownership is increasingly institutional and the current drawdown of roughly 50% remains far milder than the 80%+ bear markets of prior cycles,” 21Shares wrote.
As it stands, Bitcoin has fallen 52% from its all-time high of $126,080, recently changing hands at $59,781 on Wednesday. At that marker, it is holding above its on-chain cost basis of $54,000 according to data from Glassnode, signaling that the market has not yielded to “outright capitulation.”
While the Bitcoin ETFs have helped quell cycle dynamics, they have not seen the influx in investment that 21Shares expected this year.
In addition to its cycle-breaking prediction, the firm anticipated crypto ETFs would jump towards $400 billion in assets under management during this year. But through six months of activity, more assets have actually left crypto ETFs than have entered this year, catalyzing the fall from all-time high marks for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
But one prediction that remains on pace is the firm’s optimism around prediction market trading volumes, which it anticipated would breach $100 billion this year.
