Chinese mining figure Jiang Zhuoer has reportedly issued a bearish cycle forecast for Bitcoin, arguing that BTC may not find its final bear-market bottom until late 2026 in the $42,000 to $44,000 range.
TL;DR Jiang Zhuoer reportedly expects Bitcoin to bottom between $42,000 and $44,000. The forecast places the potential bottom between October and December 2026. His analysis reportedly uses Strategy’s mNAV and prior cycle timing as part of the framework. A Miner’s Bear-Market FrameworkThe projected $42,000 to $44,000 zone would imply further downside from current levels and would likely require continued weakness in risk assets, institutional flows, or leverage conditions. That makes the forecast uncomfortable for bulls, but useful as a downside scenario to track.
Why Strategy’s mNAV Enters The DebateThe candidate notes say Jiang’s framework includes Strategy’s mNAV dropping to 0.72, with the idea that the company’s Bitcoin-linked premium may bottom before spot BTC itself. Strategy has become such a large and visible Bitcoin proxy that some analysts now treat its equity premium as part of the broader cycle toolkit.
That does not mean Strategy determines Bitcoin’s price. It means the market’s willingness to pay a premium for leveraged corporate BTC exposure can offer a signal about speculative appetite. If that premium compresses sharply, it may show that investors are no longer eager to pay up for indirect Bitcoin exposure.
How Traders Can Use The ForecastIf Bitcoin rejects recovery attempts and institutional flows stay weak, the $42,000 to $44,000 range may become a more widely discussed support zone. If BTC reclaims key resistance levels and demand returns, the forecast may instead serve as a reminder of the bearish case that failed to play out.
Market ContextEven so, miner perspectives remain useful because they often focus on cost, stress, and capitulation rather than short-term sentiment. If BTC moves toward the projected range, traders will likely revisit Jiang’s framework as part of the broader bottoming debate.


















