A falling probability isn't necessarily bad news, argued Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey. "The drop in the probability of passage this time is merely a matter of time delay rather than the rejection of the proposal's actual content," he told Decrypt, noting that prediction markets have priced sub-50% odds since May, a view "somewhat more pessimistic than institutional forecasts."
The main issue, Sun said, is that the housing bill, the SAVE Act, and other priorities "continue to occupy the Senate schedule." Without a clear voting path before the recess, he warned, the bill could slip into "a more complex mid-term election environment." But its odds could recover quickly, he added, if a final text is released in July and Senate leaders provide a schedule.
The stakes for crypto are high, he added, pointing to a trading environment “characterized by ETF outflows and weakening risk appetite." The CLARITY Act “remains one of the few domestic U.S. policy catalysts that could potentially improve market sentiment.”
