Arkham Intelligence Ranks Polymarket Traders by Skill — Top Forecaster Hits 66.1% Win Rate

Arkham Intelligence rolled out a new skill-based rating system for Polymarket traders on Monday, shifting how the platform measures performance from profit totals to forecasting accuracy.

The second-ranked account, “roberto73,” focuses on soccer and FIFA World Cup markets, posting a 47.8% win rate across 2,835 markets with $177.8K in profit and an Elo of 2254. Third-ranked “Oliveira39” covers sports including soccer and basketball, with a 43.5% win rate over 1,817 markets and $50.1K in profit.

The contrast between profit-based rankings and Elo standings is one of the feature’s clearest signals. On the Top Traders tab filtered by 7-day performance, “blunttedge” leads with a 75% win rate across 1,027 trades and $8.3M in profit. “1two1two” follows with an 83.3% win rate across 2,435 trades and $5.6M in PnL.

“Swisstony,” one of the platform’s most prolific bettors, ranks third on the PnL board with a 52.9% win rate across 261,298 trades and $3.4M in recent profit. On the Elo board, the account holds a rating of 1514, placing it in the top 7% of traders but well below the accuracy leaders. Arkham noted that despite his high sizing and PnL, “his trades are less consistently profitable” compared to traders who score higher on pure forecasting accuracy.

Arkham first launched a full Prediction Markets analytics suite in early May 2026. That suite included PnL-based leaderboards, individual trader profiles with full position history and win rate graphs, real-time trade feeds filterable by category, and deep integration with Arkham’s entity database, which contains more than 3.5 billion address labels and over 800,000 verified entities.

The Elo feature builds directly on that foundation as an accuracy layer sitting alongside existing profit-based tools.