Polymarket traders are pricing only a 21% chance that bitcoin hits $70,000 before the end of July, with the coin trading near $61,600. The skepticism persists even as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs just posted their strongest daily inflow since early May.
Key Takeaways:
Polymarket prices bitcoin’s $70K July odds at 21 cents, with $102,000 staked on the strike and $1.16 million market-wide.Traders give $65K a 63% chance but only 5% for $75K, betting on partial recovery over a full rebound.U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew $221.7 million yesterday, the strongest daily intake since early May, after $1.79 billion fled in late June.In sum, the 63% odds on $65,000 suggest traders expect the bounce to continue, and the 21 cents on $70,000 says they doubt it will become a breakout.