Prediction-market traders moved nearly $460 million combined across Kalshi and Polymarket on England’s 3-2 round-of-16 win over Mexico. Seen as one of the best matches of the World Cup so far, the two-goal swings, the red card, and the dueling penalties whipsawed England’s win probability before it settled at 100%. The handle on this single fixture underscores how large event-contract trading on the World Cup has grown.
Key Takeaways
Kalshi traded about $402M and Polymarket $57.7M on Mexico-England.England’s win probability swung sharply on Jarell Quansah’s 54th-minute red card before recovering.A separate $1M Nevada sportsbook bet on Mexico to advance was lost as England held on to win 3-2.In the 54th minute, England right back Jarell Quansah was shown a straight red card after a video review of a studs-up challenge, leaving England with 10 men – and traders briefly repriced a Mexico comeback, sending England’s probability tumbling on Kalshi and Polymarket alike.
The line didn’t stay steady for long: Harry Kane converted a penalty in the 60th minute to restore a two-goal cushion at 3-1, and although Raúl Jiménez answered with a penalty of his own to make it 3-2, England’s line climbed steadily through the final half-hour as Mexico failed to break down the 10-man defense, and eventually reached 100% as the Three Lions lasted through the 11-minute marathon ordeal of added time as well to book their spot in the quarterfinals against Norway, who defeated Brazil earlier in the day.
