But market-making firm Wintermute says it's still “somewhat cautious,” suggesting the recent price jump is more of a relief rally than a structural shift. In other words, the firm believes this is a temporary or short-term recovery as opposed to a significant, fundamental shift in the market.
“That combination is enough to explain the bounce without needing a bigger story behind it,” it wrote.
Nevertheless, the firm still believes things can grind “a bit higher” from its current standing, pointing to a recent flip in the ETF inflows as a reason for hope.
However, Wintermute conceded that one data point doesn’t make a trend, noting that a more sustained streak of inflows would be necessary in order to believe a more structural market change has taken place.
“We'd want to see that inflow sustained over consecutive sessions before reading it as the start of a real reversal rather than a one-off, squeeze-adjacent print,” its market update says.
“Until that broader capital flow picture actually turns, this reads as relief rather than something structural,” the firm added.
Even with the latest leg up, Bitcoin remains nearly 50% off its all-time high of $126,080 set last October.
