Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 before sliding more than 30% to just over $80,000 by December, and one liquidity gauge built by crypto market maker Keyrock points to why the turn came early. Keyrock’s work ties Bitcoin returns to net U.S. Treasury bill issuance with “the roughly 8-month delay visible in the chart,” and as of June 1, 2026, that lagged impulse sat around +$136 billion and has been falling since late 2024.
Key Takeaways
Keyrock’s +$136B June 1 lag signaled 30% drop; July 14 CPI is pivot.Kevin Warsh’s 3.5-3.75% hold after 57k jobs miss pressures BTC; FOMC looms July 28-29.Bitfinex notes $1.8B ETF outflows & fear 23; July 14 CPI decides next.Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell and took the Fed chair oath after Senate confirmation ahead of the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, where Polymarket priced a 98.2% chance the Fed would hold rates steady. TS Lombard chief U.S. economist Steven Blitz argued the December 2025 rate cut mattered less than “the signalling from the return of balance sheet purchases.”
Then the economy wobbled: the June 2026 U.S. jobs report showed only 57,000 jobs added versus a 115,000 forecast, even as unemployment fell to 4.2%. With the Fed expected to hold rates at 3.5% to 3.75% into July 28-29, Bitfinex analysts told Forbes, “June CPI data on July 14, 2026, will be the pivot point.”
