Bitcoin’s current cycle may not have topped yet, according to Cryptoquant’s 365-day PnL Index Signal, which continues to trend lower, a pattern the analytics firm associates with markets whose peak still lies ahead.
Key Takeaways
Cryptoquant’s 365-day PnL Index keeps trending lower, implying the BTC cycle top may still be ahead. Bitcoin trades near $62,656, down about 50% from its October 2025 record of roughly $126,000.Cryptoquant’s bull-bear gauge flipped green on May 12, 2026, its first bullish signal since March 2023.That being said, onchain cycle signals are probabilistic, not prophetic, as evidenced by the 2022 false green flip. Weak or falling PnL readings alone do not guarantee a reversal; rather, they describe holder profitability, not future demand. Lastly, macro forces from tariff headlines to Federal Reserve policy alone have repeatedly overridden onchain structure this year.
