Fueled by positive economic data, bitcoin added to its July 14 gains on Wednesday to breach $65,000, hitting an intraday peak of $65,518 and driving its market cap past $1.3 trillion.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin surged past $65,000 on July 15, driven by a surprise 0.3% drop in U.S. producer prices.Nansen reported strong July 15 ETF inflows, as a weak DXY at 100.77 eased rate headwinds for bitcoin.Analysts eye the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28 to see if rate odds hold below 12% for a true pivot.However, since the data covers the month of June, analysts warn it may not provide the most accurate picture of where things stand, particularly as reports and evidence of damage inflicted on vital oil infrastructure in the Middle East start to emerge. Already, the prices of both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have jumped on the escalation, and expectations are that this trend will continue unless Washington and Tehran decide to give diplomacy another chance.
ETF Inflows Signal Macro Shift Over Geopolitical Noise“The DXY is trading near 100.77, its weakest level in months, and the 10-year yield has eased to 4.57% after briefly touching 4.61% pre-CPI. For a high-beta asset, that combination removes the immediate rate headwind that has been the dominant ceiling since May,” the analyst said.
From Sondergaard’s perspective, Nansen data show exchange outflows holding up through the geopolitical noise, meaning buyers are absorbing supply rather than stepping away. “The Iran blockade headline and the associated oil spike, WTI up roughly 14.6% in five days, did not change that pattern.”
“Short-term leveraged longs get flushed, and then accumulation resumes. The funding rate is running near zero right now, which removes the immediate overleveraged long risk and means the next leg, if it comes, has a cleaner base to work from,” Sondergaard explained.
For Sondergaard, the FOMC meeting on July 28 and 29 is the actual binary event: if the CPI data holds and the Fed signals a credible pivot path, the conditions for sustained ETF inflows are back in place.
