Bitcoin could sink to a cycle low of $38,000 to $39,000 by October if the current drawdown matches the depth of 2022’s bear market, NYDIG said in its second-quarter review.
Key Takeaways
NYDIG sees a potential bitcoin cycle low near $38,000-$39,000 by October if a 2022-style drawdown repeats. Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,500, down about 30% in 2026 and roughly 50% below October 2025’s $126,080 peak.K33 researchers believe the $60,000 area already marked this bear market’s maximum drawdown.The firm was explicit about why the old playbook is back on traders’ screens, noting:
The Four-Year MathApplying a 2022-style decline of roughly 70% to the October 2025 peak of $126,080 lands almost exactly on NYDIG’s $38,000-$39,000 corridor, with the timing pointing to a potential floor by October 2026, four years after the last cycle’s bottom.
NYDIG’s own narrative leaves the question open, with the firm characterizing the market as leverage-driven rather than demand-driven (where value and momentum buyers are waiting on the sidelines).
