Polymarket traders lifted the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year to 35% on July 17, a sharp recovery from the market’s record low of 24% hit just four days earlier.
Key Takeaways
Polymarket’s CLARITY Act contract rebounded to 35% on July 17 from a record-low 24% on July 13.The market sat near 74% in May before Democratic objections to Trump ethics rules sank the odds.Senate Republicans planned to release the final CLARITY Act text after a July 17 Trump meeting.The rebound suggests the odds of the Clarity Act passing into law this year have jumped to 35% (down 7% from 42% just hours earlier) with the move coming hours before Senate Republicans planned to release the bill’s long-awaited final text following a White House meeting with President Donald Trump.
Friday’s bounce back to 35% tracks the news flow. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told reporters the updated text would be released right after the Trump meeting, quipping: “You guys have a lot of reading to do.” Floor action is targeted for the week of July 20.
The Votes Still Are Not ThereLooking ahead, a 35% – 42% probability still leans “no,” but it is no longer a collapse. In other words, traders are effectively betting that the text release restarts a stalled process, while discounting the odds that seven Democrats sign on within three weeks. Every headline between now and the recess (the text itself, a cloture vote, any Democratic defections) will likely move the number in a big way.
