Bitcoin Tests $63K as Long-Term Holders Keep Selling at a Loss

The token failed to hold $65,000 on Wednesday and dropped to an intraday low of $62,640. That broke below a "$64,500 Put Wall" tied to this week's options expiry—a heavy cluster of put open interest that had been "short-term support," Tim Sun, senior researcher at Hashkey, told Decrypt.

Risk appetite across the broader markets has "cooled down significantly," Sun said, with global stocks correcting and a deleveraging in semiconductor and AI-related assets speeding up. That pressure isn't only denting crypto sentiment, he added—it is also trimming institutional exposure to Bitcoin. Even so, the derivatives market shows "no leverage-related crowding," with the selling concentrated in spot.

Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, read the drop in similar terms, calling it "a broader bout of risk aversion rather than a deterioration in crypto-specific fundamentals." Bitcoin has grown "increasingly sensitive to the macro environment," she told Decrypt, with rate expectations, geopolitical uncertainty and shifting sentiment steering short-term moves. The price and the flows beneath it are sending "slightly conflicting signals," she added—the overnight move looks negative, but the wider backdrop is less bearish than the headline suggests.

To size how intensely long-term holders are anchoring the sell side, we can zoom into exchange flows directly.

Hathorn reads that turn more constructively. The return to inflows after a stretch of outflows suggests "longer-term investors are gradually returning to the market," she said—an early sign, to her, that institutional demand is recovering.

Both Sun and Glassnode flagged early signs the heaviest selling may be nearing its end. Sun said the "liquidation intensity of long-term holders may have begun to peak," with on-chain realized losses starting to decline. Glassnode cited analyst CryptoVizart's view that bear markets rarely find "durable footing" until one-to-two-year holders exhaust their selling.

Absent "a larger external shock," Sun said, the decline may be limited, with weakening selling pressure and uncrowded leverage setting up a "choppy bottom" for Bitcoin. For now, the coins hitting exchanges still come mostly from investors who bought near the top—and until that fades, Glassnode argued, they remain the dominant force in the market.