Bitcoin has flashed an “end of bear market” signal after its short-term holder cost basis fell below the adjusted long-term holder level. The crossover mirrors previous bitcoin cycles, suggesting the market may be entering the final stage of its bear phase.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis has crossed below the adjusted long-term holder level, triggering an “end of bear market” signal.The short-term holder cost basis has fallen from $112,500 to $69,000, consistent with recently acquired bitcoin changing hands at lower prices.The signal points to a late-stage bear market, not a confirmed bottom or new bull cycle.The analyst said:
The signal appeared when the STH cost basis fell below the adjusted LTH cost basis. The crossover indicates that the average cost basis of short-term holder supply has fallen below that of adjusted long-term holder supply.
The analyst explained:
“The end-of-bear-market signal has just flashed. This signal is defined by the downward crossover of the STH/LTH cost basis (with a 3-day confirmation window to validate the signal).”
Chart Shows the Crossover Sequence Across Bitcoin CyclesThe newest “end of bear” marker appears where the STH cost basis falls below the adjusted LTH cost basis. Earlier cycles show the same sequence: a downward crossover, followed later by an upward crossover and bull-market confirmation.
Falling Cost Basis Reflects Buying at Lower Prices Signal Supports DCA Before Bull-Market ConfirmationThe analysis describes the crossover as the start of a late-stage accumulation period rather than confirmation that prices will immediately recover.
The analyst noted:
