Conor McGregor has placed $100,000 on Argentina beating Spain 3-2 in Sunday’s World Cup final, wagering that a five-year-old internet prediction will deliver a roughly $3.6 million payday.
Key Takeaways
McGregor risked $100,000 on Argentina winning 3-2 for a potential $3.6 million return.Kalshi gave Spain 58.2% odds as its World Cup market topped $1.4 billion in volume.Drake added $1.5 million on Argentina before the July 19 final against Spain.The narrow conditions separate McGregor’s wager from a conventional bet on Argentina to lift the trophy. Spain and Argentina could finish regulation tied, with Argentina winning in extra time or on penalties, and McGregor’s ticket would still fail.
McGregor called Argentina “the most mispriced line” on the board, but the wager appears to lean as heavily on the viral prediction as on traditional match analysis. Exact-score contracts carry long odds because bettors must correctly identify the winner and the final regulation score.
Prediction Markets Give Spain the EdgeKalshi’s regulation-time contracts placed Spain’s chance of winning within 90 minutes at 43%, a draw at 32% and Argentina’s chance at 27%. The platform also priced the likelihood of more than 2.5 match goals at 42%, indicating traders generally expected a tighter or lower-scoring contest than McGregor’s five-goal prediction.
Those figures make McGregor’s prediction a two-part challenge. Argentina must overcome the market favorite, and the match must produce exactly five goals in the required 3-2 sequence.
Drake Piles $1.5 Million Onto ArgentinaDrake’s bet carries broader winning conditions because it does not require a particular score. Still, his public wagering history has generated the recurring “Drake curse” meme, which links his selections to subsequent defeats.
McGregor Has Cashed Major Soccer Bets BeforeMcGregor’s willingness to back Argentina is consistent with his recent tournament betting record. He wagered €83,500 on Spain to win Euro 2024 at roughly 11-to-1 odds, collecting a return exceeding €1 million after Spain captured the title.
He also placed a substantial wager on Argentina to win the 2024 Copa América. Argentina defeated Colombia 1-0 in the final, giving McGregor another widely publicized soccer betting victory.
McGregor’s $100,000 ticket will be settled within hours. A 3-2 Argentina victory would turn a forgotten 2021 post into a multimillion-dollar prophecy. Every other regulation-time score would leave it as another viral prediction that came close, or never came close at all.
“…today is the day.”
While his original prediction has garnered 300,000 likes, his latest “today is the day” post has gathered around 75,000 likes at the time of writing.
