Brent crude rose near $92 per barrel and WTI surged past $84—up over 20% since U.S.-Iran hostilities resumed—threatening higher inflation and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Key Takeaways
U.S.-Iran combat cut Strait of Hormuz transits by nearly 50% to 127 vessels for the week ending July 19.Brent crude spiked toward $92 per barrel as Indian Oil Corp. suspended Iraqi oil loadings amid security risks.Goldman Sachs warned that prolonged shipping blockades could push Brent crude past $120 per barrel in Q4 2026.Brent crude oil surged toward $92 per barrel Tuesday as intense combat between U.S. forces and Iran stretched into its tenth day. The global benchmark Brent briefly touched a peak of $91.63 per barrel before easing to $91.26 as of 5 p.m. EST.
The rally extended across energy markets, with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate rising 2.3% to $84.38 per barrel. WTI has surged more than 20% since hostilities resumed, fueling inflation concerns and dimming expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this year.
Maritime trade in the strait—a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies—remains severely disrupted following direct strikes on tankers and commercial cargo ships. Escalating security risks have already begun to fracture physical trade flows, with Indian state refiners, including Indian Oil and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, suspending crude loadings from Iraq.
Overall weekly transits plunged nearly 50%, dropping from 248 vessels for the week ending July 12 to 127 for the week ending July 19. With daily tanker traffic remaining well below the pre-conflict benchmark of 125 transits per day, market analysts warn that the risk of acute global oil supply shortages—and severe price volatility—is surging.
The bank emphasized that alternative overland pipelines and Red Sea bypass routes lack sufficient capacity to absorb the massive supply deficit, leaving physical market buffers depleted and driving up prompt crude delivery premiums.
