Report: Kalshi Accuses Netflix of Defamation Over Trailer for New Prediction Markets Film

Prediction market operator Kalshi sent Netflix a cease and desist letter on July 24, 2026, accusing the streaming company of defamation over the trailer for its upcoming documentary “Instadocs: The Prediction Games.” The document didn’t stay under wraps for long. CNN and The Hollywood Reporter were among the outlets that obtained it directly.

The trailer, released earlier this week, shows a private gathering in Las Vegas during World Cup final weekend. It has been claimed that one guest in the trailer holds up a phone displaying what looks like a Kalshi trade slip and describes a $5,000 bet on Spain, which beat Argentina 1-0 in the July 19 final.

Kalshi says the image tells a different story than the trailer implies. The receipt is dated May 16, 2025, more than a year before the events shown on screen. The phone display reads “crop,” which Kalshi says shows the person was viewing a saved image rather than an active trade. The company also says the slip does not match its interface and uses the phrase “bet slip,” language it claims has never appeared on its platform.

Beckhardt stated:

“Netflix had a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets. Instead, they made a sensationalized film built on fiction.”

Kalshi has told Netflix it has barred sports event contracts in Nevada since May 4, 2026, and argues the trailer puts that legal position at risk during active litigation with the state.

Netflix denies fabricating footage in a statement shared with The Hollywood Reporter. A Netflix spokesperson said the disputed trade was placed in May 2025, before any Nevada restrictions on Kalshi existed, and that the scene was filmed at a private Winible World Cup Watch Weekend event in Las Vegas. Winible, a platform tied to sports content creators, said the trade was placed outside Nevada and that tracking a position from any location is legal.

Kalshi recently reached a deal with Nevada to deploy a multi-source geofencing system through a provider such as Geocomply. The company has until August 12, 2026, to finish the rollout or face penalties of $120,000 per day.

Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach pointed to a timing problem. He noted Kalshi told Netflix it has barred Nevada sports trading since early May, while court filings around the same period referenced trades that got through during the injunction period. Wallach said the overlap could weaken parts of Kalshi’s defamation claim, which depends on the trailer’s implication being entirely false.

The unresolved question of CFTC authority over state gaming law now sits behind a documentary dispute with real legal weight. Kalshi cooperated with the film’s production, yet moved to block the trailer once it aired. As of July 25, the trailer was still circulating and Netflix had not confirmed any changes ahead of the Sunday premiere.