On Sunday, during the morning trading sessions, bitcoin exchanged hands for $64,466 on July 26, giving back most of a rally that had pushed the cryptocurrency above $66,900 earlier in the week.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin traded at $64,466 on July 26 after failing to hold gains above $66,910 set on July 21.Blackrock’s IBIT led over $900 million in ETF inflows, then $225 million left funds on July 23.Markets believe the Fed will hold the rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 28-29 as the Senate weighs the Clarity Act by August 7.The past seven days followed a familiar pattern. Buyers stepped in after last month’s drop to $57,700, driving bitcoin from $64,700 on July 19 to a high of $66,910 on July 21. Sellers then took over, pulling the price back into the low $64,000s by July 25.
A Week of Failed BreakoutsDaily trading data shows the swings clearly. Bitcoin opened July 19 near $64,800, dipped, then closed around $64,700. Buyers returned July 20, pushing the price to $65,735 before a pullback to $63,720. July 21 delivered the strongest gain of the week, about 2%, as bitcoin closed the day near $66,530.
From there, the trend reversed. Bitcoin slid for three straight sessions, closing July 22 near $66,100, July 23 near $65,070, and July 24 near $64,165. By July 25, the price of BTC settled between $63,950 and $64,120 per coin.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) stayed in “Fear” territory throughout the period, with readings in the mid-20s to low 30s. That reflects caution left over from bitcoin’s drop from its October 2025 record high above $126,000.
ETF Money Moves the MarketThe streak ended July 23. ETFs saw about $225 million in net outflows that day, driven mostly by IBIT redemptions. The reversal lined up with the start of Bitcoin’s price decline, tying institutional flows to the short-term price swings.
The Fed Holds the Next CardBitcoin charts show support building near $63,800 to $64,200, with a deeper floor at $61,800 to $63,100, where onchain data shows heavy trading activity. The June low near $57,800 to $58,700 remains the major support if selling resumes.
On the upside, $65,500 to $66,000 has capped recent rallies, with a bigger test at $67,200 to $68,000. A close above that zone would open the door to $70,000 to $72,000, where the 200-day moving average sits in most chart timeframes.
Daily RSI sat near 49 as of July 26, a neutral reading that leaves the market without a clear signal in either direction. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages still sit above the current price in most timeframes, which keeps the intermediate trend pointed down until Bitcoin reclaims those levels.
Onchain data points to accumulation beneath the surface. Several major exchanges saw large bitcoin outflows during the week, a pattern typically tied to longer-term holders moving coins into cold storage rather than preparing to sell. Options and leverage positioning clustered around the $65,000 to $70,000 strikes ahead of the Fed meeting and month-end expiry, a setup that could add volatility once the rate decision lands.
What Comes NextThe July 28-29 FOMC meeting is the week’s biggest event. A hold with cautious language on inflation could send bitcoin back toward $66,000 to $68,000. A hawkish surprise would likely push the price toward $61,000 or lower.
Whether those events ultimately prove bullish or bearish is almost secondary. When bitcoin has this many major storylines competing for attention at once, volatility usually isn’t far behind.
