Galaxy Research lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 30% after lawmakers released final text of the crypto market structure bill, with unresolved disputes threatening the bipartisan support needed for passage.
Key Takeaways
Galaxy Research reduced its CLARITY Act passage estimate from 50% to 30% as Senate negotiations face new obstacles.The 616-page bill combines crypto market structure rules with ethics, enforcement, custody, and stablecoin provisions.Supporters face a difficult vote calculation as lawmakers seek the 60 votes required to overcome a Senate filibuster.Galaxy Research lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 30% after the Senate released combined legislative text, increasing pressure on lawmakers to resolve disputes before the August recess.
“We are lowering our estimate of the probability that CLARITY becomes law in 2026 to 30%.”
Senate Vote Math Creates Challenge for Bipartisan SupportThe CLARITY Act contains 104 numbered sections across four divisions and preserves several industry priorities, including developer protections, self-custody safeguards, and rules for digital asset intermediaries. The bill also creates new enforcement tools targeting crypto-related fraud, including elder scams and “pig-butchering” operations, while establishing requirements for qualified digital asset custodians.
Thorn highlighted the challenge facing supporters:
“The bill may not even have a clear majority-party majority in hand, much less the 60 votes required to overcome a filibuster.”
The vote calculation has become the central challenge for supporters, with lawmakers needing bipartisan backing to move the legislation through the Senate.
Ethics Provisions Become Major Point of DisagreementThe latest CLARITY Act draft introduced a new ethics division restricting certain senior government officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while serving in office.
The proposal establishes disclosure requirements and assigns enforcement authority to the Department of Justice (DOJ). The provision has drawn criticism from lawmakers who want stronger safeguards around conflicts of interest and financial crime.
Democratic lawmakers involved in negotiations pushed for stronger ethics rules, consumer protections, illicit finance safeguards, and market integrity provisions. Seven Democrats, including Senators Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, and Raphael Warnock, said the current text fell short. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) separately criticized the draft, calling for stronger measures to prevent financial crime.
The dispute has added another challenge for negotiators attempting to build support for the legislation before the Senate’s August recess.
The CLARITY Act would establish federal rules for digital asset classifications, exchange oversight, custody requirements, and regulatory responsibilities between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The framework has drawn attention from crypto companies and investors seeking clearer rules for operating in the United States.
